(Reuters) — A new capital regime to bullet-proof European Union insurers against financial crises could be delayed by two years because of continuing disagreements over the final shape of the rules.

Insurers had expected the Solvency II rules, scheduled to take effect in January 2014, to be put back by a year because E.U. governments can't agree how to calculate the amount of capital that should be held against life insurance policies.

However, there is mounting speculation that the regime, 10 years in the making and intended as a global benchmark for insurance regulators, could now be put back to 2016 or later to give governments time to iron out their differences.

"2015 could work, provided everything falls into place, but I suspect there are those who are weighing up whether it would be wiser to go for a two-year delay," said Paul Clark, insurance partner at accountants PricewaterhouseCoopers L.L.P.

Talks between E.U. governments, lawmakers and officials on how to set the capital reserves for life policies were halted last month pending tests to gauge the impact of competing approaches, effectively putting the 2014 start date beyond reach.

The tests finish in March next year, but with each government championing the method that favors its own insurers, there is no guarantee that the deadlock will be broken in time to meet a 2015 deadline, Mr. Clark said.

Insurance executives say the case for a longer delay is strengthened by a dawning realization that Solvency II could impose a heavy capital burden on the sector and threaten its investment firepower, which is needed to kick-start Europe's flagging economy.

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"The sense now is that we may not see Solvency II put into practice until 2016," said a British industry source who closely follows the Solvency II negotiations. "There's more interest in allowing insurers to contribute to the growth agenda."

The European Commission, the architect of the Solvency II project, last month asked regulators to make sure the new regime did not deter insurers from putting money into "growth and job-enhancing areas."

The commission proposed putting back Solvency II to 2015 during discussions with lawmakers and officials last month, a source involved in the talks told Reuters at the time.

It has not publicly said when it expects the new rules to take effect, despite pressure from insurers and regulators who want clarification of the implementation timetable. A spokesman on Thursday said that the commission was keen for the individual governments and lawmakers to decide quickly on a way forward in the negotiations.

The new rules will probably not come into effect until 2016, Gabriel Bernardino, head of the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, the pan-European regulator, told the Wall Street Journal on Thursday.

Leading European insurers have said they would rather the regime was delayed than pushed through only to be amended later, though the biggest players favor an early introduction to dispel uncertainty over their future capital requirements.

A survey of 160 big insurers published on Thursday by accountants Ernst & Young showed that more than 40% of Europe's insurers will not be ready for Solvency II by the January 2014 deadline and 10% would also miss a 2015 start date.

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Solvency II, originally intended to take effect this month, is designed to make insurers hold capital in strict proportion to the risks they underwrite and is likely to force many firms to hold more cash.

Analysts say the rules, first drawn up amid benign economic circumstances a decade ago, are too sensitive to the violent financial market swings seen since the 2007 credit crunch and could impose excessive capital strain on insurers.

"We believe that the turbulent financial markets over the past five years have raised a lot of questions about the proposed framework, which could seriously penalize insurance companies," analysts at stockbroker Cheuvreux wrote in a note.